After instances of retail theft jumped +16% ahead of England’s World Cup match with Mexico (Mon, 06 Jul), retailers are being warned that the Three Lions’ Quarter Final clash could prompt even higher instances of shoplifting.

New data from SAI, the leading active intelligence solution for stores, suggests in-store theft could rise +26% against the daily average on Saturday as England take on Norway.

“England heading to a Quarter Final usually spells penalties on the pitch, however retailers are facing their own World Cup-related penalties in-store,” said Chris Bell, Head of Marketing & Insight at SAI.  

England-Mexico match brought the heat to retail stores

Data from the SAI One Platform, which analyses insight from over 1,000 UK retail locations and inputs from over 20,000 cameras daily, showed that England’s fixture against Mexico saw shoplifting spike, with theft peaking at 12noon and packaged snacks and food goods among the most stolen items.

The South East and London were the biggest crime hotspots, seeing the biggest rises in retail theft, up +27% and +12% respectively.

With England’s late-night game culminating in heated scenes at The Azteca, pre-match tensions had also bubbled over into stores, with a +5% rise in violent incidents being reported on Sunday.  

With fans stocking up ahead of the fixture against Mexico, which started at 2am after weather forced a delayed kick-off, operational burden in bricks-and-mortar stores also rose, with triggers increasing +6% on the Sunday average.

England’s football success prompts penalties for stores

To date, across all of England’s World Cup games, instances of crime, including shoplifting, violence and abuse, taking place in-store jumped +11% on average in the run-up to each of the Three Lions’ fixtures.

Impact on stores (vs daily average)	Shoplifting	Violence	Operational burden
England vs Mexico Round 16 (Mon, 06 Jul) Won, 3 – 2	+16%	+5%	+6%
England vs DR Congo Round 32 (Wed, 01 Jul) Won, 2 – 1	+24%	+5%	+9%
England vs Panama Group (Sat, 27 Jun) Won, 2 – 0	+17%	+5%	+8%
England vs Ghana Group (Tue, 23 Jun) Drew, 0 – 0	+7%	0%	+2%
England vs Croatia Group (Wed, 17 Jun) Won, 4 – 2	+6%	+20%	+5%

“As the Three Lions’ success drives rising footfall, fan excitement and heightened emotions, stores are seeing theft and crime rates climb at a time when many are looking to capitalise on the revenue opportunities the tournament presents,” Bell continued.

Shoplifting to spike +26% ahead of England’s Quarter Final

Shoplifting incidents are expected to rise by +26% ahead of the Three Lions’ Quarter Final clash with Norway (Sat, 11 Jul), according to forecasts from the SAI One Platform.  

Retailers located near fan zones, as well as convenience stores, are among those predicted to experience the biggest uptick in crime-related incidents.

“England’s World Cup success is proving to be a double-edged sword for retailers.  As the Three Lions’ run gathers momentum, the same excitement driving footfall and sales opportunities is also creating the perfect conditions for theft, violence and store disruption.”

Bell continued: “This means retailers will need to ensure their operations are match-fit, enabling them to pre-empt and react quickly to issues in-store to ensure the safety of customers and colleagues.”