Nearly half of all Amazon Prime Day purchases will be returned, says new figures from Manhattan Associates, which forecasts that 61 million items will be sent back after the summer sales event.

Its data suggests that two thirds (65%) of UK shoppers plan on buying goods during the Prime Day period, with 25–34-year-olds the most prolific purchasers, who intend to buy an average of 3.69 items each.

Despite the sizable revenue opportunity, Manhattan Associates’ Keith Dipple, said that the event “puts the entire commerce operation under enormous strain,” owing to the waves of returns it generates.

Of the 61 million items expected to be sent back, the timing, channel and processing of returns presented challenges for retailers. “They come in waves, across multiple channels, from different customers with different expectations about refunds, exchanges and delivery” he explained.

“Prime Day will always produce a returns surge as it’s the nature of the event. The question is whether your capability is equipped to absorb it, proactively handle it and come out the other side in a stronger position.”

As well as returns, invent.ai’s data also points to the flip side of Prime Day revenue opportunities across margin and loyalty.

Its poll of 1,000 shoppers showed that six on ten felt that securing good deals during discounting events like Prime Day delivered a short-term “price fix”, but didn’t contribute towards brand loyalty, while 50% agreed they were less loyal due to discounting.

A further 58% believe Prime Day is accelerating a “race to the bottom”, putting retailers under growing pressure to offer ever-deeper discounts to remain competitive.

“Retailers need to find a balance between meeting demands for discounts without locking themselves into an unsustainable race to the bottom, where aggressive price cuts erode margin and loyalty over time,” said Farid Mohsen, VP of Strategic Accounts at invent.ai. “This requires greater precision in how brands benefit from sales spikes whilst building more profitable customer relationships.”