Online BFCM spending is set to reach £3.9billion, with £1.5billion of digital spend predicted to take place today (Black Friday), according to TopCashback data.

“As we head into Black Friday, we’re expecting another huge weekend of online shopping across the UK,” said TopCashback’s UK Director, Adam Bullock.

“With shoppers becoming increasingly value-driven, people are looking at ways to make their money go even further. Our research shows 23% are hunting for coupon codes, 21% are using price comparison tools and a fifth are buying through cashback sites to make their money go further.”

TopCashback predicts ecommerce traffic will spike between 11am and 1pm, before building again into the evening. The busiest moment of the entire day is expected to be during a ‘digital power hour’ at 8pm.

Worldpay predicts shoppers will spend more on fashion than big-ticket items, such as consumer tech and electricals, on Black Friday this year.

Based on its 2024 transactional data, UK consumer spending on Black Friday across retail increased +69% above average monthly spending, with retail transactions jumping +22% week-on-week.

Clothing and accessories remained one of the leading categories in both 2023 and 2024, which Worldpay says will cement fashion as the Black Friday favourite in 2025. Last year, spend on clothing and accessories was +65% higher than electronics, +72% higher than homeware and +1,035% higher than beauty.

“Black Friday used to be all about big-ticket electronics, but our data shows a shift,” said Pete Wickes, GM EMEA at Worldpay. “Today, it’s the festive fashion shopper driving spend, stocking up on outfits for office parties and family gatherings.”

“For fashion retailers, this isn’t just a seasonal spike – it’s a chance to stand out. Success will come to those who turn payments into part of the experience – fast, flexible, and frictionless, whether online or in-store.”

Dupe culture and online fakes have increased shoppers’ authenticity concerns for Black Friday buys.

Sensormatic’s research of 1,000 UK shoppers showed a growing number of consumers intend to head in-store today to avoid online dupes when making BFCM purchases. 

One in five (17%) plan to shop in-store over online during BFCM to ensure product authenticity and avoid online fakes, rising to 42% of Millennials, while 25% trust items bought in-store to be genuine, certified goods.

“Consumers have always valued the store for purchase validation before buying,” said Andy Sumpter, EMEA Retail Consultant at Sensormatic, adding:

“We’re now seeing an extension of this, where dupe culture and question marks around authenticity online are making the physical retail the cornerstone for brand trust over Black Friday.”

While BFCM remains a key sales opportunity leading into the festive period, it also leaves retailer open to increasing cyber risk, says MDR provider, Expel.

Retailers are especially vulnerable to cyber-attacks over BFCM if cybersecurity has been treated as “a cost centre rather than a strategic priority” ahead of the event, as Pierre Noel Field, CISO at Expel, explains:

“With investment typically becoming reactionary, many organisations rely on fragmented systems that lack proper integration, creating grey areas that threat actors readily exploit. Add in a complex supply chain, where partners and vendors are misaligned on security standards, and cybercriminals quickly become the true benefactors of the season.”

Field argues much of the problem stems from a broader cultural misunderstanding of cyber risk with Boards grasping the concept of fraud but struggling with the likelihood and impact of breaches. Without regulatory pressure or clear ROI, retailers often deploy the smallest possible licences or the least invasive controls just to meet compliance.

“With retailers sitting at the intersection of customer data and financial transactions, point-of-sale malware and “living off the land” techniques can cause disruption, financial loss and long-term damage to customer trust.”

To limit risk, he recommends retailers “verify everything and trust nothing,” adding:

“Essentially, [retailers] must adopt zero trust, segment networks, treat patching as a race, and prioritise real-time monitoring. So, if done right, a coordinated, top-down approach, paired with shared intelligence between CISOs, will be able to prevent threats from becoming existential.”

As retailers navigated the first ‘fully AI’ BFCM, research of 10,000 shoppers by Criteo shows this Black Friday consumers will primarily use AI for product comparisons (44%), and finding best pricing (39%).

Six in ten (62%) of those surveyed say they find AI-powered chatbots helpful when shopping online, with ChatGPT established itself as the leading “AI of choice” for 57% of consumers.

“This Black Friday marks a turning point for how consumers use AI to shop. What was once a simple search for deals is now an intelligent dialogue; consumers are asking AI to compare, curate, and even predict what’s worth buying. That behaviour signals a deeper trust in automation to enhance, not replace, human decision-making,” commented Liva Ralaviola, VP of Research & AI at Criteo.

“The real opportunity for retailers lies in using this shift to create discovery-led experiences powered by AI – experiences that feel intuitive, personal, and aligned with how people actually think and shop. This year, AI might just turn Black Friday into a moment of truly intelligent shopping.”

Building trust will “lay the foundations for agents completing discovery and purchase steps autonomously, reimagining commerce channels,” Criteo said.

Consumers leaving BFCM shopping until the last minute in the hope for final discounts may risk missing out, says analysis from customer experience marketing agency, Gekko.

Its data shows prices increase by up to +18.2% the second Cyber Monday draws to a close, putting the onus on customers to make the most of the available deals while they last.

Commenting on the data, Daniel Todaro, CEO at Gekko Group, said:

“With prices increasing straight after Black Friday weekend’s discount bonanza, consumers who leave shopping to the last-minute may well lose out. When many are feeling financially squeezed, every pound counts, so consumers should take full advantage of the discounts available while they can.” 

As the UK tax burden climbs to 38% of GDP, the highest level on record, consumer research conducted on the day of the Autumn Statement reports 45% of consumers feel worse off as a result of the Budget.

30% will now prioritise household essentials over premium deals and more than half (55%) say Black Friday promotions now feel more important than ever, signalling a shift toward value-led spending.

The Budget dominated the headlines, and consumers were clearly paying attention, noted Todd Latham, CEO of Attest.

“While income tax rates didn’t rise, the continued freeze on thresholds means fiscal drag is biting hard and people can feel it in their pockets. That shift in sentiment is set to show up at the tills [on Black Friday], with shoppers becoming more cautious and retailers having to work harder to win spend.”

Aside from the sizable sales set to be made over the BFCM period, the Black Friday opportunity extends beyond revenue alone, says HTEC‘s Global Managing Partner (Retail), Joe Serrano, who says the event will be retail’s AI testing ground for 2026.

“Black Friday isn’t just about the sales, it’s about the data. This year’s event is a testing ground for retailers, who are using it to see what AI can actually do in the wild, and to understand what worked and what didn’t.”

The results will shape the future of 2026 retail, according to Serrano.

“Black Friday is when retailers will really understand how people use AI in the
shopping journey. The real opportunity is what happens after Black Friday, taking the data and fixing the gaps in customer fulfilment and experience.”

“This year is the rehearsal for AI. Next year is when it will start to actually transform the experience into the future,” he added.

Data from Klaviyo’s platform, which analyses data from 180k+ global brands globally, has found that BFCM spending is already up +12% YoY, as Black Friday gets off to a “stronger than expected” start.

On average, it said discount rates were holding steady or, in the case of luxury, dropping. Luxury brands’ discount rate is -9% lower than last year, while value remain in line with 2024 (+0.2%).

Ben Jackson, EMEA MD at Klaviyo, explained:

“This Black Friday will mark the definitive shift from discount-driven shopping to loyalty-driven spending. Consumers will buy less, but buy smarter – guided by AI recommendations and loyalty to brands they trust.”

eBay is transforming Outernet London into the first-ever eBay Live Superstore – with the Black Friday event bringing the platform’s interactive shopping experience to life in a real-world setting.

Hosted by presenter and broadcaster AJ Odudu, the event combines in-store shopping with virtual livestreams, running every hour from 1pm through to 7pm, offering deals on luxury pre-loved fashion, sneakers and collectibles, plus exclusive prices on refurbished tech. 

The full schedule can be found on eBay Live. Shoppers can download the app and click the bell to get a reminder and join the action as it happens. 

Drawing on its data from over 113 million transactions across its network, Mangopay expects Black Friday 2025 to deliver more orders than ever, but with lower average spend per basket, as consumers continue to shop flexibly and with purpose.

Average UK basket sizes fell -21% year-on-year in 2024, signalling a shift to frequent, low-value purchases – a pattern set to deepen this year, it said.

“Shoppers haven’t stopped spending, but they have stopped splurging,” says Alex Taylor, Managing Director at Mangopay. 

“Consumers are buying more often, but it’s clear they’re thinking harder about every pound. For platforms and marketplaces, this means preparing for a longer, more considered shopping season in 2025 and helping shoppers spend wisely, not just quickly.”

Retailers focused on generating BFCM sales must remember that conversion is just the first part of the story, says Mia Yamaguchi, Retail Development Lead, Uber Direct UK&I. Often the defining moment for retailers running Black Friday promotions takes place beyond the checkout.

“Black Friday is a great opportunity for online retailers to boost sales, attract new customers and encourage loyalty. But the shopping frenzy that ensues comes with challenges – not least the need to meet consumer expectations around the speed of delivery.” 

Expectations around fulfilment speed are only heightened when it comes to social commerce purchases, she added, because these purchases are made through quick discovery and instant decision-making.

“Retailers will be judged on the end-to-end service they provide. If the delivery experience is found to be lacking, it can sully a brand’s reputation – and the likelihood of the customer returning is low. So it’s vital that [brands] are capable of providing a frictionless customer experience which can meet heightened consumer expectations.”

Research of 1,200 internationally trading small to medium-sized businesses (SMEs) shows that one-third (31%) of SMEs in the United Kingdom expect BFCM sales to be significantly better than last year, with a further 48% predicting they will be slightly better.

UK SMEs also predicted that over a third (38%) of their peak sales would come from regions outside Europe. The top regions with which the UK’s internationally trading SMEs reported doing business are the US (72%), other European countries (68%) and the Middle East (43%).

Confidence in the importance of shopping events like BFCM was highest amongst businesses dealing in both consumer and business goods (94%), followed by B2C SMEs (84%), with B2B businesses slightly lower at 77%.

“Our latest figures show a real sense of optimism for the peak holiday season, highlighting the remarkable resilience of internationally trading UK SMEs. With eight in ten predicting stronger holiday sales than last year, this is a clear sign of confidence and growth in the sector,” said Alun Cornish, Managing Director of UK Operations at FedEx.

“These findings also challenge the perception that events like Black Friday are purely consumer-focused, revealing how many B2B businesses are successfully tapping into this surge in demand.”

Landsec expects shoppers to spend over £95million across its national portfolio of shopping centres during Black Friday week, including Bluewater, Gunwharf Quays, Liverpool ONE and Braintree Village, as BFCM and festive spending gains momentum.

Health & Beauty is set to be the standout category for a second consecutive year, with sales expected to exceed £11million driven by affordable luxuries, while apparel is also expected to perform well.

“Black Friday continues to be relevant for consumers looking to take advantage of discounts, and we expect it will once again be a major moment in this year’s Golden Quarter,” said Bruce Findlay, MD of Retail at Landsec. “With Christmas now just a month away, festive shopping is in full swing.”

“In-person retail continues to offer something unique at this time of year. With major brands investing in larger, experience-led spaces and leading destinations combining retail, dining and leisure, shopping in person offers far more than just scrolling for deals – it’s about atmosphere, discovery and spending time with family and friends.”

Retailers are being urged to keep a sharp eye on an unexpected threat to margins: waste left behind by delivery drivers. Industry data collected by BusinessWaste.co.uk shows waste levels spike by around 30% during peak, and any packaging, pallets or discarded materials left onsite become the retailer’s responsibility—putting them at risk of enforcement action if not dealt with properly.

Local authorities and the Environment Agency can issue a range of penalties for poor waste management, from £300 fixed-penalty notices for missing paperwork to more than £50,000 for serious breaches. With loading bays under pressure and bins overflowing earlier each year, waste mismanagement is one of the quieter operational risks of BFCM 2025.

Retailers are being advised to treat waste checks with the same urgency as delivery checks: inspect every drop-off before drivers leave, expand waste capacity, and segregate materials to avoid contamination in the wet-weather. Clear delivery zones, CCTV evidence of abandoned waste and reporting external drivers are all being highlighted as essential Black Friday safeguards.

Mark Hall, retail waste management expert at BusinessWaste.co.uk, said: “Peak is a chaotic period of deliveries for many of us, and that’s exactly why waste gets disposed of incorrectly. Delivery drivers are in a rush, businesses can be short-staffed, and deliveries can get missed, so it’s important to have waste management procedures in place to not only protect your business from fines but also create a safe and clean environment for everyone involved.”

“Whether it’s booking extra waste collections to cope with the additional Christmas packaging waste, or ensuring all staff are aware of the correct waste disposal methods, making sure there are efficient procedures in place ensures your business is compliant with waste disposal, which in turn saves you from any financial damage.”

Black Friday is gathering momentum, according to TopCashback, which reports a sharp early-morning spike in online bargain hunting as shoppers move quickly on standout deals.

“Black Friday has burst into action this morning, with shoppers jumping on early standout deals across the board. We’ve already seen traffic on TopCashback climb by 137.4% compared to this time last week, showing people are eager to kickstart their savings,” said Adam Bullock, UK Director at TopCashback.

“Market place, Health & Beauty and department stores look to be the categories most in demand this year, and with some big offers going live throughout the day, we expect these numbers to keep rising. There’s a huge appetite for value this year – and plenty of opportunities for shoppers to bag something brilliant for less.”

TopCashback says the early leaderboard is being driven by eBay, Curry’s and Argos, with estimated spend already topping £4m. The platform’s busiest period so far was 8–9am, and 40% more members are currently using the site compared with the same time last year.

Research from digital accessibility provider AccessiWay suggests retailers could be losing significant Black Friday revenue as shoppers abandon online purchases due to usability and design barriers.

Among shoppers with disabilities, the impact is even more severe. AccessiWay reports that 76% say accessibility barriers would prevent them from shopping online during peak periods, while 80% struggle with websites, apps or digital services due to poor design. The most common issues include small text, confusing navigation and slow-loading pages.

58% want stronger regulation and the EU’s new European Accessibility Act sets higher standards for any UK retailer trading into Europe. Failure to meet basic accessibility expectations risks sending customers directly to competitors.

Amit Borsok, CEO and Founder of AccessiWay, said: “Our research shows just how widespread the issue is. 57% of UK shoppers say accessibility problems would put them off buying during major sales periods like Black Friday, and Gen Z are the most likely to abandon a purchase. Many businesses don’t realise this is happening because customers simply move to a competitor without reporting the problem.”

“Accessibility is a legal requirement across the UK, EU and many other markets, and a fundamental right for users with disabilities. Organisations that prioritise it are seeing clear benefits, including stronger online visibility, improved SEO performance and a more user-friendly experience for every customer.”

Retail trade union Usdaw has urged shoppers to respect retail workers this Black Friday weekend.

“When stores are busy, customers can get frustrated with queues and stock quickly disappearing off the shelves; too often that can turn into anger towards retail workers,” said Joanne Thomas, General Secretary at Usdaw.

“Incidents of violence, threats and abuse against retail staff are already worryingly high. Interim figures from this year’s Usdaw survey reveal that nearly three-quarters of retail workers suffered abuse from customers, with far too many experiencing threats and violence. My Black Friday message to shoppers is clear. Enjoy your bargain hunting, keep your cool and respect retail workers.”

Black Friday may once have been about impulse splurges and glossy gadgets, but for most UK shoppers this year it’s about getting through Christmas without breaking the bank, according to the research by product intelligence business, Vypr. 

Its poll suggests shoppers are entering the BFCM sales season with one eye on their budgets and the other on their shopping baskets.

While more than half (52%) say they’ll use Black Friday to buy Christmas presents, almost a quarter (24%) admit it has become a time to “buy what we need” rather than to treat themselves, as Vypr’s Founder Ben Davies, explained:

“The cost-of-living crisis has reshaped one of Britain’s biggest shopping days. Black Friday isn’t about splashing out and treating yourself – for a lot of people, it’s about making Christmas gifting possible.”

TopCashback is reporting another upswing in Black Friday activity this afternoon as momentum continues to build ahead of the expected evening peak.

The platform says engagement has now climbed beyond the levels seen at the same point last year, with mid-morning trading delivering its busiest hour so far, with estimated spend at over £14million.

“This afternoon has brought another strong wave of Black Friday activity as shoppers flock to some of the biggest deals we’ve seen so far. Our busiest hour has been between 10am and 11am, with even more members using the site than at this point last year.”

“We’re now gearing up for the famous evening rush – particularly the ‘power hour’ between 8pm and 9pm,” commented Adam Bullock, UK Director at TopCashback.