UK retailers are starting to see a shift in consumer spending intentions as shoppers prepare for the festive season, the latest data from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) and Opinium reveals.

Spending intentions rise as festive season looms

UK consumers’ personal spending intentions for the next three months rose to +14 in October, according to the BRC-Opinium poll – up +9 index points since September – as shoppers started to plan for Christmas.

This rising spending signal came even as the outlook among consumers for their personal financial situation became less optimistic, dropping by -4 index points month-on-month to -11, representing the first time it has fallen into double digits since May 2025.

“With Christmas now around the corner, expectations of spending, particularly on retail goods, rose sharply,” said the BRC’s Helen Dickinson.

However she added that “worries about the cost of Christmas, coupled with concerns about potential tax rises in the upcoming Budget are likely to have contributed to the drop in sentiment around personal finances.”

Christmas spending tipped to reach £91bn

Separate data from Vouchercodes tips Christmas spending to hit a record high of £91billion this year, as consumers splash out on festive shopping despite stubbornly high inflation and cost-of-living concerns. 

It forecasts a +3.2% rise in UK retail sales across the six week festive period (mid-November to the end of December), with gifts, food & drink and holiday travel expected to receive the biggest boost.

“It’s looking like another sparkling Christmas for retailers this year… with consumers determined to not let budgets put a dampener on celebrating the festive season,” Moji Oshisanya, CCO at VoucherCodes.co.uk, commented. 

“However, with inflation at such a high level, UK consumers are increasingly on the hunt for ways to help their money go further – when budgets are tight, value is all important,” she added.

Savvy shopping to dominate Peak Trading

Almost three quarters (73%) of UK shoppers will take more time searching out deals when Christmas shopping this year – up +4 percentage points compared to 2024, a poll by Sensormatic Solutions showed.

Meanwhile a further 40% said in-store promotions and discounts would remain a top consideration when choosing to shop in-store for gifts, as shoppers deploy savvier behaviours to bag the best bargains.

“Having dealt with ongoing inflation and cost-of-living pressures for such a prolonged period, astute shopping behaviours are now engrained in the UK customer psyche,” said Andy Sumpter, Sensormatic Solutions’ EMEA Retail Consultant.

“Relentless bargain-hunting, highly considered purchasing and cross-checking every channel for the best prices is now second nature for hyper-savvy shoppers,” he added.